I came across the concept of the 'hype lifecycle' today, whilst reading one of the technology magazines that regularly turns up on my desk at work. Gartner identified the hype lifecycle model as having the following key stages
Trigger
Peak of inflated expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
The BCU version of the UK Coaching Certificate has been widely hyped, with BCU reps attending coach update forums for a number of years to give updates on its progress and benefits. Now some of the detail has started to be issued, it's clear that it will impact all BCU coaches to some degree (some more than others). Some of the hype/benefits are not as expected, and there appears to be grumblings from the masses about how it will be further implemented, the lack of further information, the abscence of more communication.
It would appear that we are somewhere on the downward slope from the 'peak of inflated expectations' to the 'trough of disillusionment'. Hopefully, we can get to the 'slope of enlightenment' soon.
As many people do, I'm heading away for the weekend. I'm heading to Penzance for the Cornish sea kayak gathering, run by Richard Uren - several days of sea and surf kayaking with like minded friends. It's a great opportunity to catch up with friends, have a natter about life in general and hopefully get some decent sea and surf kayaking done.
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I sat through last night's 'Alive' TV show, which featured a sea kayaking incident, wondering why did they get it so wrong - even as 'novices' they should have thought about some basic questions: what's the weather doing, do we know enough to undertake this crossing, what are we going to do if it goes wrong?
For me, there are three types of incident when kayaking: expected events - everyday incidents e.g. taking a swim, getting blisters, cuts & bruises, getting cold; unexpected events - more serious incidents, which with hindsight could have been prevented or which with more experience you learn to be more wary of e.g. more serious first aid, hypothermia, drownings etc; and extreme events - the sort of thing that even an experienced person could not have predicted.
From the comfy perspective of my large sofa, it seemed that these two paddlers didn't even think through the expected incidents - they may not have even been sufficiently experienced to be aware of the expected incidents - yet they decided to undertake the crossing based on their 'athletic' ability.
Was this a case of 'it'll never happen to me' syndrome, this ever present ability of the human race to discount severe risks faced by us, or was it just plain inexperienced niavity, or was it an over-exaggerated belief in their ability - or was it a combination of all three??
If you can't identify expected & unexpected risks, if you don't know what preventative measures you can use to avoid these risks, and you aren't capable in responding should these risks occur - then maybe you should seriously question why you're undertaking this activity without a guide, a more experienced leader or further coaching.
I'm currently having to think a lot about probability, severity and confidence (that you can address the severity) in my day-job, and it's equally applicable to managing risks in all these crazy antics that we get up to these days.
The problem is, whilst people seem to understand probability, and maybe severity, confidence is rarely understood or addressed properly.
Basic egg sucking.. An adverse event (or risk event) has a probability of occurance. That's obvious. In kayaking, I could get pinned on a rock but based on the number of rocks I successfully pass when kayaking the probability is fairly low.
Intermediate egg sucking.. However, once I'm pinned (i.e. the risk event has occured) this could go any number of different ways ranging from I free myself quickly without leaving the boat (most expected outcome), I escape my boat onto the rock (unexpected outcome), or I flip, get pinned with my head down in the water and drown (catastrophic outcome) - with many combinations between. If I was to look at it as a graph of probability versus severity it would probably look something like this..
In other words, there's a small probability I'll escape with no impact to me (i.e. I wash off, it doesn't affect my line or anything)
Most likely it'll impact me to some degree but it won't be too seriously.
But, there's also a small probability that it will have a serious impact to me. As the seriousness grows, the probability diminishes still further - but it could still happen.
(inspiring) Confidence.. Too often when faced with extremely small probability of serious impact from risk, I hear people say "It won't happen to me". Esentially, they're choosing to ignore that a given event could potentially have a serious consequence - they're burying their head in the proverbial sand
Confidence is your ability to handle any given scenario. How bad does a pinning have to be before you can't handle the outcome :
.. could you free someone stable but pinned on a rock in the middle of a river .
..supposing they were stood on the rock - could you get them off it and free the kayak,
..what if they were head-down pinned in the middle of the river - could you free them and give appropriate first aid, what if you couldn't free them - could you handle the press attention, the inevitable litigation, what about meeting their parents??
When talking about risk people often refer to their appetite for risk, which defines the level of risk they'll undertake. But if they are already buring their head to the potential for an extreme event to occur is their view on risk appetite really up to much.
Maybe we should change our approach to assessing what risks to undertake to factor in our confidence to deal with extreme scenarios.
In addition to the 'interesting' discussions about the UKCC Coach levels, there has been more info posted on the UKCC Coach Educator Scheme - what used to be the Assessor gradings. The cynic in me feels these will undoubtably result in further hoops to jump through to get you back to a position similar to that which you are already at. The optimist hopes different, having recently chased after a number of assessor grade signatures.
Fortunately, the BCU has chosen to run some forums for assessors, 'coach educators' in new-speak. Further details of when yours is are available here.. . I recommend all assessors go and find out how bad it's gonna be...Read more:
Okay, so the news is out, the BCU has finally started to release more detailed information about UKCC. Clearly this change is going to impact all of us BCU coaches out there, but none more so than the current BCU Level 4 coaches - particularly if you're working up the coaching ladder, not just static on it.
As I understand it, if you're a BCU Level 4 Coach your remit will not change and you will still be able to coach as per you have been - aside from any insurance or acceptance issues within a commercial market-place.
However, if you're a BCU L4 coach, who still wants to work up the coaching ladder you will firstly have to drop down to UKCC Level 3, then move to UKCC Level 4 which will put you back where you were in terms of the environment you coach in, before finally looking to move on.
So, in essence, the biggest sufferers in the BCU/UKCC migration are those advanced coaches who still have the time, money and effort to continue further - possibly the very people, I would suggest, that the BCU ought to be encouraging. Read more:
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