Bruce Schneier has published some thoughts on perceived risk versus actual risk in his cryptogram newsletter. It's an interesting essay on why we over react to some risks, and under react to others. Apparently, we:
over-react to intentional actions, and under-react to accidents
over-react to things that offend our morals
over-react to immediate threats and under-react to long-term threats
under-react to changes that occur slowly and over time (implying the opposite is true)
exaggerate spectacular but rare risks and downplay common risks
have trouble estimating risks for anything not exactly like their normal situation
perceive personified risks to be greater than anonymous risks
underestimate risks they willingly take and overestimate risks in situations they can't control
overestimate risks that are being talked about and remain an object of public scrutiny
Whilst not rocket science in terms of risk thinking, the above list is certainly something to think about in our day to day activities.
What does this mean in kayaking terms? That depends on what you do I guess, but there are some obvious lessons to draw out:
don't underestimate the risk of things going wrong - be prepared for them, know what you would do
Pay more attention to those aches and twinges - it's your body telling you something
When sea kayaking, watch out for how far you're drifting in wind/tides when dealing with incidents.
Watch out for slow-build up events, use early warnings as just that, not a series of isolated incidents - they rarely are
Think 'outside the box' when thinking about what could go wrong, don't just think of familiar risks
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